Forecasting and Prediction: An Advanced Business Analytics Case Study

Opti-Num Solutions Advanced Business Analytics Team was approached by a telecommunications company to recommend and implement pricing strategy changes on one of their products in order to maintain its KPIs during the uncertainty of the COVID-19 Nationwide Lockdown and its various levels.

Our first step was to understand the current business performance, we tackled this problem with the use of our data-driven decision making techniques which  enabled us to visualise the product’s key performance indicators (KPIs). By distilling the raw data into actionable information Opti-Num was able to identify areas of potential, and thus provide the opportunity for deeper analysis in these areas. With the aid of business decision makers and a variety of analysis results which motivated for conservative changes on the products pricing structure, Opti-Num was able to recommend two possible strategies for driving revenue and customer activity within the business.

With any suggested business change, Opti-Num performs an analysis to quantify the expected effect on the business, in this case, predicting the performance of the KPIs as a result of the changes in pricing strategies. Although the future was uncertain, we used the power of advanced analytics to put bounds on that uncertainty, where we aimed at reaching between 95% and 105% of our KPI targets: Revenue and Number of Transactions. This was accomplished by analysing past trends in the business’ and individual product’s performance as well as by integrating additional external indicators to build a forecasting model that learned the trends of the past and provided a glimpse of the future. With MATLAB’s expansive library of machine learning and statistical tools, we tuned, selected and bagged various models to best fit the data. This enabled us to predict what would happen after the changes went live. Predictions showed that the pricing change could be expected to drive 4% in revenue growth on the product through more transactions, and an average growth in revenue per transaction of 1.4%. The potential positive impact drove the business decision to select the recommended pricing changes.

Once implemented, the pricing change was monitored and tracked daily to monitor the KPIs performance using various dashboards and trends with focused analytics aimed at further understanding the products performance against forecasted targets. The results showed that both Revenue and Number of Transactions performed within the predicted confidence bounds, with Revenue reaching 104%, and the Number of Transactions reaching 95% of the target.

 

 

 

The Opti-Num Solutions Advanced Business Analytics team used forecasting and prediction techniques to highlight areas of potential Revenue growth while maintaining continued activity within the telecommunications environment. This was accomplished through the adoption of advanced statistical and machine learning techniques with big data, allowing our customer’s product to see a healthy growth in Revenue during the various levels of the National Lockdown.

Our Advanced Business Analytics team at Opti-Num Solutions are eager to take your customer data and deliver actionable insights with recommendations to unlock better performance during these uncertain times.

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